How to beat bookmakers with math
The obsession of players and researchers - to beat bookmakers in English sounds more belligerent: "beat the bookie", since the first word means not only to beat, but also to beat.
More than once I have come across publications by different authors, scientists and researchers who have set themselves a similar goal.
Other authors have used complex models: collecting social media keywords, machine learning, and more. In the description of the experiment, there was evidence that prediction accuracy could be as high as 70% using these advanced techniques. Most likely, this is the case in the experiment. The problem, however, is that the experiment and the long-term experience of participating in sports betting are different things - see 22 bet app for details. There is one more circumstance. It is almost impossible for an ordinary person to check the calculations on their own. Indeed, how to collect 100 thousand keywords from Twitter before each match and calculate them? How to train a machine learning algorithm for each championship?
But finally something happened that could be least expected. Three scientists from Japan, Australia and Brazil did both at the same time: they conducted a study and a successful long-term experiment on participation in sports betting. All data, all code is openly available! The model is simple, unpretentious and does not require 150 server nodes and 25 assistant professors in the field of neural networks. They played out to the point that the bookmakers began to simply block them. I think it is worth dwelling on this fascinating scientific experience in more detail.
According to 22 bet download , the researchers did not develop a new model for calculating and predicting probabilities for football matches. The essence of the strategy is that the bookmakers' own data and calculations are taken as a basis in order to surpass them. From all aggregate information on rates, the probabilities are determined to find those rare rates that have significant deviations from the expected value. Settlements made over 10 years are backed up by 5 months of participation in live money sports betting at real bookmakers. Conclusion - the sports betting market is not efficient, long-term profit is possible in it.
Read more in Wikipedia: Probability Theory